Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reaffirmed on Saturday that he will consider every team when he reaches free agency this winter. While that may not sound like a revelation, it’s further evidence that Guerrero has moved off comments he made years ago indicating he would never play for the New York Yankees based on an experience he had with his father.
“If I go to free agency, every team — all 30 teams — are going to have the opportunity to sit down with [me], to talk to me,” Guerrero told the New York Post through an interpreter. “I’m OK with everything. It’s in the past.”
For reference, Guerrero said the following in 2022: “I like to play in New York. I like to kill the Yankees. I would never sign with the Yankees, not even (when I’m) dead,” He had on multiple occasions since echoed that he would not consider the Yankees. “It goes back with my family,” he said at one point. “That’s my decision, and I will never change that.”
And yet, Guerrero had already softened his stance heading into last summer’s trade deadline, when he explained that he would play for whatever team he ended up on because “this is a business.” It sure is, and even if Guerrero remains adamant about not playing for the Yankees, it only makes sense for him to present himself as being open to the possibility. The Yankees are, after all, one of the league’s financial powerhouses. Their involvement in the bidding process can only benefit Guerrero, no matter how serious he is (or isn’t) about joining their ranks.
Guerrero, 25, is expected to be the top free agent available this winter. He’s a career .288/.363/.500 hitter (137 OPS+) who has validated those old comparisons to Miguel Cabrera. Guerrero figures to benefit from being the closest thing to an elite hitter the market will feature in the near future. That could result in a contract worth between $400 and $500 million. CBS Sports’ Matt Snyder recently ranked the Yankees as one of the two teams who made the most sense for Guerrero. New York will employ Paul Goldschmidt at the cold corner this season, but lacks a long-term solution there. Guerrero, if both parties are open to it, could solve that problem.
On Saturday, word surfaced that the Houston Astros have renewed interest in obtaining third baseman Nolan Arenado from the St. Louis Cardinals. The Astros attempted to acquire Arenado back in December, but he ended those efforts by invoking his no-trade clause. It’s unclear if Arenado has changed his tune about the Astros since, or if this will be the second verse of the same song.
Should the two sides reach another agreement and this time have Arenado acquiesce, the Astros would likely plug him in at the hot corner. In doing so, Houston would relocate longtime second baseman Jose Altuve to left field; current projected third baseman Isaac Paredes, added in the Kyle Tucker trade with the Chicago Cubs, would then slide over to the keystone. Similar hypotheticals were bandied about when the Astros showed rekindled interest in reuniting with franchise cornerstone Alex Bregman in January. Bregman instead joined the Boston Red Sox.
That’s all good and well, but something I find myself asking is … well, should the Astros even bother with Arenado? Let’s examine that question using a few handy subheads.
Risky profile, cost Mind you, this would be a no-brainer if this were the Arenado of a few seasons ago. It’s not.
Arenado, nearing his 34th birthday, is now fresh off one of the worst offensive showings of his career. What’s worse is there are legitimate under-the-hood reasons to doubt his ability to regain his old form. His average exit velocity, for instance, was down more than two ticks year to year and ranked in the ninth percentile in all of Major League Baseball. Additionally, Arenado recorded the worst hard-hit percentage (the share of batted balls that cleared 95 mph) of his career.
Predictably, perhaps, Arenado’s bat speed also declined in 2024. Whereas more than 16% of his swings in the second half of the 2023 season cleared 75 mph, that mark was down to 12.8% last year, according to Statcast. A player’s ability to make authoritative contact is, in part, a function of their bat speed. It’s only natural that players lose some of their quick twitch ability as they age, particularly into their mid-30s. Arenado has never walked at high rates throughout his career; as such, losing more of his slugging capacity could reduce him to a severely limited offensive player.
To be fair, Arenado has remained productive overall thanks to his outstanding defense at the hot corner. He’s notched around 2.5 Wins Above Replacement in each of the past two seasons. Further offensive decay, however, might put him on the wrong side of the league-average mark. That possibility is bubbling at a time when he has three years and $74 million remaining on his contract.
Even acknowledging that the Cardinals will likely retain a fair chunk of that money to facilitate a move, I’m not sure that the Astros would be wise to place their chips on Arenado — in part because of his risks and his finances, and in part because of the players they already have in place.
Complicating internal matters The opportunity cost associated with Arenado isn’t just about how much he’s owed; it’s also about the playing time and defensive role he’ll demand at the expense of other Astros players.
As suggested in the introduction, adding Arenado would require the Astros to enact a carousel that moves Altuve to left field and Paredes to second base. Altuve’s relocation seems to be underway no matter what, so it would be unfair to count that as a debt against an Arenado acquisition. Paredes’ part, however, would be a new and direct reaction to Arenado’s presence. The Astros’ defense would almost certainly take a hit, at least in the early going, as they settled into their new positions. (For whatever it’s worth, Paredes has graded significantly worse at second base throughout his career.)
The Astros don’t have a great farm system by any means, but it’s hard to ignore how Arenado’s addition would complicate the path to the big-league roster for what notable prospects they have on hand. That includes outfielder Jacob Melton and infielders Brice Matthews, Cam Smith, and Shay Whitcomb. That’s without considering how the move would impact the likes of Mauricio Dubón and Brendan Rodgers, a recent signing who had a better 2024 season than most people realize.
Having more good players than spots is always a worthwhile problem to encounter. But again, it’s not that simple; the Astros would jump on making those trade-offs if Arenado were still his old, elite self. Because he’s not, and because further attrition could be in store, the Astros have a trickier calculus to perform. From where I’m sitting, I’m not sure that the math checks out.
Another sign of fractured approach I’ve written about this before, and I’ll continue to grant the possibility that I’m misreading the situation from afar and seeing things that aren’t actually there. Still, I continue to get the sense that the Astros have splintered perspectives in their front office about what they should do with their roster. To be sure, you can find differences of opinion in every front office. There’s a widespread misconception that front offices are monoliths that are on board (or not) with every maneuver; hardly, it’s more like every other job where you can find disagreement with ease.
What makes the Astros unique is how that disconnect (if that is indeed what I’m detecting) has manifested in their transactions the last two years.
The Astros have been one of the most successful, dominant franchises in the sport for a decade now. At some point, the rent was going to come due: on having an aging (and/or departing) core; on always choosing late (if at all) in the first round of the draft; on making win-now trades every summer and winter. They seemed to acknowledge that the bill had arrived in December, when they traded impending free agent Kyle Tucker. It wasn’t an easy decision, but it was the kind of move a team makes when they realize they need to take a big-picture approach to ensure a better future. (And, to Houston’s credit, I did and continue to think that trade could pay dividends.)
So, how do you reconcile that trade (and its implicit motivations) with some of the others the Astros have made? A team that recognizes it’s time to shift some attention forward isn’t usually spending big money on a closer (Josh Hader) and an aging right-right first baseman (Christian Walker) while, on multiple occasions, chasing after an aging third baseman (Arenado).
I don’t think the Astros have to close themselves off to any kind of deal that’s focused exclusively on the near term. I do think that the Tucker trade was a misfire if their intent was solely to maximize what’s left of their championship window and if the goal is to try to serve both the present and the future, I think some of these moves (and pursuits) may end up being a mistake in that respect since they limit playing time and financial opportunities. The beauty of baseball being so unpredictable is that everything might work out for the Astros anyway.
That includes if Arenado again ends up saying no to their advances.
Major League Baseball’s exhibition season is fully underway, but that isn’t stopping teams from making last-minute additions to their rosters. With that in mind, CBS Sports will compile all of Sunday’s most notable developments and rumors in the space below for your consuming pleasure.
Brewers add Canha The Brewers have agreed to a minor-league contract with veteran outfielder Mark Canha, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post.
Canha, 36, spent part of the 2023 season with the Brewers. He’ll return to Milwaukee having split last year between the Tigers and the Giants. He batted .242/.344/.346 (99 OPS+) with seven home runs and seven stolen bases across 125 games. Canha’s contributions were worth an estimated 0.6 Wins Above Replacement, the lowest mark of his career since the 2017 season.
player headshot team logo Mark Canha MIL • 1B • #21 BA 0.242 R 46 HR 7 RBI 42 SB 7 View Profile Canha figures to compete for a bench spot with the Brewers. In theory, he could even work himself into a timeshare with lefty-hitting outfielder Sal Frelick. That’s just a theory at this point, though, and there’s reason to be skeptical about Canha given his below-average power production. Teams generally want more thump from their corner players.
Of course, the Brewers may be one of the teams willing to look the other way in that respect given they do employ Frelick — plus there’s the recent development that saw them lose outfielder Blake Perkins for some time due to a fractured shin.
Canha is classified as an Article XX(B) free agent — he has more than six years of service time; he ended last season on a big-league roster; and he signed a minor-league pact more than 10 days before Opening Day — meaning that he’ll have a few opt-out opportunities available to him that will require the Brewers to either add him to their roster, pay him a retention bonus, or release him to free agency entirely. The first of those opportunities comes five days before Opening Day.
Rangers sign Pillar The Rangers have inked veteran outfielder Kevin Pillar to a minor-league contract, the team announced.
Kevin Pillar LF BA .229 R 38 HR 8 RBI 45 SB 12 Pillar, 36, will attend big-league spring training and will attempt to win a job in camp alongside the likes of Evan Carter, Wyatt Langford, Leody Tavares and Adolis García. He split last season between the White Sox and Angels, compiling an 88 OPS+ across 100 games. His contributions were worth an estimated 0.4 Wins Above Replacement.
With the Oklahoma City Thunder defeating the Houston Rockets in the NBA Cup semifinals round and looking to play the Milwaukee Bucks in the championship game, OKC now finds themselves atop of this week’s NBA power rankings.
Despite not having the best record in the league, their tremendous play on both offense and defense during the regular season and the in-season tournament has propelled the Thunder over all other teams.
OKC Thunder place first in NBA power rankings As week nine of the NBA season comes to fruition, various teams find themselves around the same spots where others have taken either drastic rises or falls. For the OKC Thunder, they have consistently been within the top-five all year long, and for the first time this season, place first in the power rankings:
5 straight wins by double-digits and a spot in the #EmiratesNBACup Championship gets the Thunder to No. 1 🔥
Check out @johnschuhmann’s full NBA App Power Rankings below!
— NBA (@NBA) December 16, 2024 Due to their five-game win streak and opportunity to win the second-ever NBA Cup title, the Thunder are atop of the NBA mountain. Much of these wins and overall success, however, would not be possible without their incredible defense.
With the best defensive rating in the entire league and leading the NBA in both steals and deflections, Oklahoma City is adding their name to a very exclusive list of all-time NBA teams. As stated by John Schuhmann in ‘Power Rankings, Week 9: Thunder take over No. 1; Bucks move into Top 10’, OKC is holding their opponents to historically low scores:
Over the previous 28 seasons for which we have play-by-play data, the best defense belonged to the 2003-04 San Antonio Spurs, who allowed 8.3 fewer points per 100 possessions than the league average. The Thunder have been much better than that, allowing 9.4 fewer than the league average.
If the Thunder are able to keep up this type of play game-in and game-out, they may have a great chance at solidifying themselves at the top of the power rankings for the foreseeable future.
First, however, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company have to prepare for a talented Milwaukee Bucks team headed by Giannis Antetokounmpo tomorrow, Dec. 16, at 8:30 PM EST.
The Boston Celtics pretty much have the perfect team, but there might be a way to upgrade it. According to Chicago Bulls insider Joe Cowley, the Bulls are expected to aggressively shop star guard Lonzo Ball at the trade deadline.
This season, Ball is averaging five points, three rebounds, three assists, and one steal per game. While this doesn’t seem like much, keep in mind he’s coming off two seasons of not playing due to injury.
Ball would be a great pickup to increase the playmaking of the bench. He would be an extra guard to allow Payton Pritchard to focus more on scoring, and Ball playmaking.
While Ball would be a playmaker first, he can still score, and in the Celtics’ style. The Celtics love to shoot from deep, and with a career 36% from three, he would fit in perfectly.
Ball is also a great defender, with his steal per game and his height, he would be able to guard at least three positions effectively.
Should the Celtics consider him? Absolutely, as long as they can make him work with their payroll. They might have to give up Al Horford and some picks, but it could be worth it.
If Milwaukee could only add one player before the deadline, it would behoove the Bucks to bring someone in who can defend multiple positions at a high level.
On Monday, Bleacher Report’s Greg Swartz listed Marcus Smart as the top player Milwaukee should prioritize acquiring before February 6.
“An 8-2 record over their last 10 games has erased any thoughts of the Milwaukee Bucks being sellers at the deadline,” Swartz said.
“The focus should be on flipping a struggling Khris Middleton along with some sweeteners to improve this roster around Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard.”
“Smart is still a high-level defender who would help a Bucks team that only ranks 14th overall this season. Few players could provide more intel on the Boston Celtics in a potential playoff series as well.”
Imagine a Bucks-Celtics playoff series in which Smart has the opportunity for revenge against the team that traded him. It would be NBA cinema. The Bucks probably still don’t have enough to beat Boston in a series, but adding Smart would give them a much better chance.
Dallas could steer clear of Butler and instead opt to bring in a cheaper (and younger) option on the wing. Kyle Kuzma of the Washington Wizards (and formerly of the Lakers) would be a nice addition to the Mavs offense, as noted in a new report on Monday by Bleacher Report’s Greg Swartz.
“The Dallas Mavericks made the list as one of the four franchises that Butler’s agent Bernie Lee “expressed in league circles” that he was open to joining, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania,” Swartz said.
“The Mavs don’t have a lot of trade assets assuming they want to keep a core of Luka Dončić, Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson and Dereck Lively II together. If the Heat value P.J. Washington, Naji Marshall, Jaden Hardy and a 2031 first-round pick, however, a deal isn’t impossible.”
“Kuzma would come at a discount given his down year (15.8 points, 27.6 percent from three) but should be far better playing alongside stars in Dallas than rookies in Washington.”
The 29-year-old Kuzma is in year two of a four-year, $90 million contract.
In recent reports, Bobby Portis’ expendability was revealed. According to ESPN’s Bobby Marks, “Sources confirmed to ESPN that Milwaukee had a deal in place last season to send Portis to Dallas for Grant Williams.”
Clearly, Portis is a name to monitor as the trade deadline approaches. A trade between the two teams could look similar to the following:
Bucks receive: Nicolas Batum, Kris Dunn, Amir Coffey, PJ Tucker, Kobe Brown
Clippers receive: Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, AJ Johnson, Chris Livingston, Tyler Smith, 2031 second-round pick
Batum and Coffey are impactful floor-spacers to surround Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. Batum is a connective passer who also is a switchable defender with his combination of mobility paired with his 6-foot-8 frame. The veteran French wing is shooting 37.3 percent from three this season, with 79 percent of his attempts are from distance. Meanwhile, Coffey is shooting 41.4 percent from three.
Dunn would be the Bucks’ long-awaited lockdown perimeter defender–he is grabbing 1.7 steals per game on the year. While his shooting isn’t a strength, he offers reliable ball-handling and creation ability. Additionally, Brown is a swing at a 24-year old former first-round pick who could grow into a useful role, but is unproven at the moment. Tucker has yet to appear in a game this season and appears disgruntled on the Clippers.
The 39-year old veteran could get one last championship run in with his former Bucks squad as retirement is on the horizon.
The Clippers motivation to agree to this deal would be to acquire more youth. Adding 2024 first-round pick AJ Johnson, along with 2024 second-round pick Tyler Smith and 2023 second-round pick Chris Livingston would accomplish this goal.
The 2031 second-rounder is included purely as a sweetener due to the potential lopsidedness of the exchange. Connaughton is involved due to salary-matching purposes while Portis could slot in coach Ty Lue’s rotation as the sixth-man bucket-getter that he is. As is, the Clippers seemingly lack firepower off the bench.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been surrounded by trade rumors for the past month. Some experts believe they will be active on the trade market prior to the NBA Trade Deadline on February 6th.
If they decide to be active on the trade market, they will have to be cautious with cap space. The Wolves will have a difficult decision to make. Will they take responsibility for their botched pre-season trade? It’s been clear for the entire first quarter of the season that the New York Knicks won the Karl-Anthony Towns trade.
Should they put newly acquired Julius Randle or Donte DiVincenzo on the trading block or should they pivot and move different pieces?
Greg Swartz of Bleacher Report suggests a new trade target that would be a less harmful trade. One player that was listed for the Wolves was New Orleans Pelicans guard Javonte Green.
Much like the Wolves, they haven’t reached expectations this season. As their team recovers to full health, they’ll be active to move some pieces around to push for the playoffs as well. For New Orleans, moving an expiring contract like Green’s would be a low risk move, but a player like Green would fit well with Minnesota. He would give them a veteran option for the second unit in the backcourt.
A player that the Wolves could offer is Nickeil Alexander-Walker. With the Wolves’ lack of financial flexibility, he would also be a low-risk trade.
“Assuming this core stays intact, the Wolves may be looking at Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s $4.3 million salary as the biggest deal they’d have to fit other contracts into,” Swartz wrote.
While all these trade rumors with Minnesota typically surrounding Randle and DiVincenzo, it may be more realistic for them to consider a trade that doesn’t have the potential to collapse. They went in all on the Towns trade, so the Wolves will have to be extra vigilant for their next move.
